A New Omicron Edition New York Struggle With BQ Is Trying To Tell Us Something
As scientists predict what an autumn COVID wave might look like in the US, all eyes are on the Empire State. That's because it's considered a 'belweather' when it comes to viral situations, and what happens there often provides a preview for the rest of the country.
At this time, New York is witnessing an increasing number of cases of highly transmissible, immunosuppressive COVID variants of the BQ family, which include BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Experts tell Fortune that because such variants are flourishing there, they may have the potential to flourish elsewhere in the country
The Bq variants are considered to be the most immune - suppressing strains of COVID yet, along with the XBb variants on the rise in many other parts of the world. The jury is still out on how serious these strains are, but there are early reports that monoclonal antibody treatments reserved for high-risk patients may not stand up to them.
“We are getting really concerned about BQ.1.1 and are watching the New York data closely,” said variant tracker Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., recently. Recently told Fortune
Together, Omicron spawns BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are "following the same script" as other previously dominant variants - such as COVID, Delta's parent strain and Omicron's parent strain - in a northeasterly By initiating inflammation that may eventually occur, says fellow variant tracker Dr. Ryan Gregory has told Fortune the rest of America has been washed away.
Rates of admission to the relevant hospitals of New York
Experts say that New York is a veritable crystal ball when it comes to the COVID forecast for a few reasons, the amount of international travelers to come, and its strong ability to genetically sequence samples of the COVID virus.
New York. When one type gains traction in Europe in the form of the BQ family, trackers like Rajnarayanan and Gregory make it to the U.S. I know to look in the first place.
Levels of BQ variants nearly doubled this week in the CDC's New York area, which also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The BQ family has grown from an estimated 9% last week to more than 17% this week, according to agency data.
The rapid growth rate worries scientists, including prominent US infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has called the recent doubling time of the viral family "very disturbing".
However, Rajnarayanan's concern is that the number of people hospitalized in New York is also increasing. In mid-September they were about 2,000 beds a day. A month later, according to state figures, they are close to 3,000.
Just before Omicron hit the U.S. at the end of last year. Referring to the deadly COVID wave that shook the state, the state's current hospitalization wave is "very close, but not higher than the delta peak."
Another sign of rising viral activity is Google searches for "cough" in New York are five to seven times higher than usual, Rajnarayanan said, citing a dashboard created with data from Google Trends. There are also increasing searches for "nasal congestion," "headache," and "migraine," in addition to "sore throat" and "diarrhoea."
He said, "Something is going on there."
An ugly braid
The US is not far behind New York in seeing an increase in BQ cases, says Rajnarayanan as the family of variants is gradually increasing in other parts of the country as well.
Estimated cases of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1—called "typhoid" and "Cerberus" respectively by some public health experts on the Twitterverse—increased from about 12% nationally last week to about 17% this week. US The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made the announcement Friday. Experts say national BQ levels are lagging behind those in New York where the U.S. The sequences were first identified in
No one can predict because which version comes out on top this winter. But the high immunogenicity and transmissibility of BQ.1.1 "establishes it as a key driver of the next U.S. wave in the coming weeks," said Dr. Eric Topol a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of Scripps. The Research Translational Institute tweeted last week.
The various waves of COVID forms used to be quite sequential, often with a valley or plateau in between. But now, according to Rajnarayanan there are more than 500 Omicron variants circulating—some, such as members of the XBB family, with the potential to cause a subsequent boom of their own.
The coming US COVID wave, she predicts, will not be just one wave, but a series of waves that each fueled by a different variant – creating a "table mesa" or table-like plateau".
The extended wave will have "an ugly peak due to a combination of different descents and then a downward trend," he said. "I won't celebrate when someone goes down, because something else is about to pop up."
It is possible that the coming winter wave may not be different from what the US is already experiencing in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. But that doesn't mean it will be without consequences, experts say.
Rajnarayanan said, Even if 200,000, 300,000, 400,000 people are infected, some of them are probably going to develop long COVID. It's going to affect the workforce, who can't do remote work. there is a problem."
That's something I don't think we have a proper plan for as a country," he continued. "I would like to see a longer COVID plan before I start declaring the pandemic is over.
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